IX. Estimated sales amount by broadcasting service for cellular phone
mobile carrier
contents
supplier
broadcasting
service operator
(US1.00=JY110.-)
Japanese Yen/month/user
100
150
30
US
Dollars/month/user
0.91
1.36
0.27
number of mobile
users 2010
100,000,000
100,000,000
100,000,000
browser phone
ratio
0.9
0.9
0.9
potential user
ratio
0.05
0.05
0.05
number of
potential user
4,500,000
4,500,000
4,500,000
JY sales per
month
450,000,000
675,000,000
135,000,000
US sales per
month
4,090,909
6,136,364
1,227,273
JY sales per
year
5,400,000,000
8,100,000,000
1,620,000,000
US sales per
year
49,090,909
73,636,364
14,727,273
depreciation of
equipment
37,800,000,000
7years in JY
in US Dollars
343,636,364
allocated
frequency band
5000(5mhz)
broadcasting
band 300khz
300
broadcasting
band ratio
0.06
cellular carrier
total cost
630,000,000,000
calculated from
broadcasting
service ratio
in US Dollars
5,727,272,727
Estimated sales amount by Broadcasting Service for Cellular Phone was made as a reference
for broadcasting service related companies.
Assumption of calculation
1. The content of the broadcasting service is assumed to be a musical program,
economic news, and public entertainments news, etc. These programs are
transmitted by using one channel.
It is assumed, 1 month, 280yen (US2.55) a user, and a packet fee is unnecessary
basis.
As for the content service of a present cellular phone, one content cost,
such as economic news, musical program, is 200-300yen (US1.82-2.73),the packet charge is added separately.
100 yen (US0.91) is assumed to be cellular phone carrier cost, 150yen (US1.36)
to the contents supplier cost, and 30 yen (US0.27) to the broadcasting
service company cost.
２. The number of users of present cellular phones in Japan is about 85 million people. And the number of users of cellular phones is expected to become 100 million people in 2010, and level-off thereafter.
３. Among cellular phones, the browser phone is assumed to be 90%.
４. When the ratio of users of the broadcasting service for the
cellular phone is assumed to be 5%, the number of users becomes about 4.5
million people. (Present users of musical programs and other
services in the Internet, the ratio of users of pay services are 4-7%)
Result of trial calculation
1. As a result, the cellular phone entrepreneur expects sales of 5.4 billion
yen (US 49million) per year, the contents supplier 8.1 billion yen (US
74million), the broadcasting service company 1.6 billion yen (US 15million).
2. When cellular phone entrepreneur's equipment depreciation period is
assumed to be seven years, sales of seven years are 37.8 billion yen (US
344million) in total.
When the frequency band ratio used to broadcast is about 6%, (the entire
cellular phone entrepreneur's bandwidth is assumed to be 5MHZ, and the
band used for broadcasting is assumed to be 300KHZ), the amount of money
of whole equipment is possible up to 630 billion yen (US 5,727 million),
if similar sales are raised to other services, voice and interactive data,
etc.
When the frequency band ratio used to broadcast is about 8%, (the entire
cellular phone entrepreneur's bandwidth is assumed to be 5MHZ, and the
band used for broadcasting is assumed to be 400KHZ), the amount of money
of whole equipment is possible up to 472.5 billion yen (US 4,291 million),
if similar sales are raised to other services, voice and interactive data,
etc.
The above is a trial calculation when all sales are turned to the equipment
load though the sales promotion cost, the overhead, and others are necessary
for a whole of cellular phone entrepreneur business plant besides the equipment
cost.
3. When some company plans to be MVNO (Mobile Virtual Network Operator),
they are able to pay the cost of connection fees of 5.4 billion yen (US
49 million) a year.
4. After the tax of five years, 104% is expected as for IRR of the broadcasting service company.
Several important factors not
included in trial calculation
1. It is experimented that cellular phone entrepreneur's band use efficiency
will increase to ten times that of present in the future.
2. The advertisement income can be expected in addition to the fee for
cellular phone users.
3. The music distribution by broadcasting becomes feasible. In this case, the cellular user can download
it without the packet fee.
